Leaders need to know the difference between haste and speed.
In modern business, we seem to be in the habit of needing to be ‘fast’ to just keep up. However, going too fast can get leaders stuck in a ‘speed trap’ that can get you and your business into trouble.
There are errors inherent in thinking. As we process information, we can use two types of thinking approaches — fast (automatic) thinking and slow (conscious and considered) thinking. There is a powerful place for both in great leadership thinking, however the habit of speed often leads to short cuts that lead to errors and poor decisions.
Going too fast can put you into the ‘speed trap’ — you cause big problems and actually get to where you want to slower than if you didn’t rush in the first place.
When we ‘think fast’, we often make cognitive errors and jump to conclusions that are false — or even dangerous. Examples of this thinking includes making cognitive errors:
Cause effect error
It is a natural inclination to see a ‘story’ behind every piece of information. As humans, we are programmed to look for cause-effect links (x happened because of y) and have difficulty processing correlation and randomness. If we rush to find meaning or story in information, it locks in that connection — which can be dangerous to the business moving forward. Many times a hastily derived — and incorrect — story has led to really bad decision making and business actions. (For example: “Donald Trump would make a great president BECAUSE he was a successful businessman”, is a cause-effect pairing that may or may not be accurate, but can greatly skew decision making about that candidate.)
Certainty error
We see things that we believe (thanks to our stories) as being certain, rather than open to doubt. If we strongly believe in a plan, then we are likely to see its outcome as ‘certain’. It is OK to sell it as certain, but we need to have an understanding of the uncertainties so that we can properly examine and deal with the risks and potential issues that could emerge.
Possibility error
We are poor at estimating probabilities. We will overestimate the chance of success of a small percentage play, particularly if we have committed to it. This leads to highly risky actions often being chosen when there is little hope of a payoff. The better option (and more difficult) is often choosing to cut your losses.
Low effort error (pattern matching)
We jump to conclusions as soon as we detect a pattern: for example, what comes next? Apple, Orange …? What if the correct answer was telephone? Because we have detected a pattern, we leap to the answer that we know that best suits that pattern. The likelihood is that you — like most people — chose a piece of fruit as your answer. In this case, if the pattern is wrong or incomplete, your conclusion is open to error.
Confirmation bias
When we make a decision, we are great at finding things that support or confirm that decision, and even better at overlooking things that challenge it. This means that we often get stuck on a course of action, even if the evidence speaks against continuing. This leads to projects continuing well past their true use by date.
Emotional reasoning
Most people are more likely to ‘trust their guts’, use their intuition or bring emotion into the equation, even when it stops quality rational thinking.
What can you do?
Decide how to decide. If you know how decisions will be made, it sets up a structure to slow thinking down, to meet minimum decision requirements, and avoid many of the thinking biases.
Know what is enough. On the other hand, knowing when enough is enough — when a decision can be made — is important. Not taking decisions that can reasonably be taken (knowing the risks involved) is often as dangerous as making decisions that should never be made.
Understand intuition. Knowing that intuition is valuable in fields of high expertise means that you can use short-cut thinking where you have extensive experience, and the decision replicates other decisions taken before. Using your ‘intuition’ outside of this expertise frame is a recipe for cognitive error.
Slow down to speed up. Often taking time to slow down with the thinking can speed up getting to the right result. Take the time to think, don’t just rush.
Break the habit of thinking in overdrive and avoid the decision-making speed trap.
