Central to India’s journey toward self-reliance since independence, oil remains a lifeblood of national progress, fueling industries, energizing infrastructure and driving economic ambitions.
Within this broader energy narrative, lubricants, refined derivatives of crude oil, have played a quietly crucial role, keeping the engines of agriculture, transportation and manufacturing running smoothly.
Few understand this better than Bankim Patra, Executive Director of Lubricants at state-owned behemoth Indian Oil Corporation. He has borne witness to the industry’s evolution since 1992 – the year he first joined the company, and also the year that recent economic reforms opened the lubricants sector to private and foreign players. The impact was dramatic.
“A huge number of new players came in,” Patra tells The CEO Magazine. “We lost our market share – it went from 60 percent to 25 percent in the period from 1992–97.”
Time to recalibrate
It was a moment of realization for the shell-shocked company, having dominated the sector since its lubricant business first started in 1972.
“We realized that our marketing strategy wasn’t great,” he says.
The next step was to engage a consultant, who suggested business process engineering as a solution – one that the company adopted.
“With that, we started regaining our market share,” Patra says. “But at the same time, volume has gone up significantly.”
Many players who had come in during that period of deregulation had found the market unviable and had exited in droves. And once again, Indian Oil Corporation found itself in a strong position.
“We find that customers are once again returning to public sector undertakings (PSUs),” he shares. “They appreciate the price stability, the reasonably good service on offer and the marketing promotions we’re actively running.”
“A lot of changes are happening in the lubricant market.”
The appeal was heightened further during the trials of the COVID-19 pandemic, when importing became “very, very tough”.
“Now, more and more players, whether B2B or B2C, find greater value propositions if they associate with a PSU,” Patra explains. “So that’s why we’re getting market share back again.”
On the back of this rebound, Indian Oil Corporation has set in place a “tremendous expansion plan” that Patra is confident will help it achieve its ambitious Vision 2030, even as an energy shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources takes place.
“Similarly, there’s a shift from internal combustion engines (ICEs) to electric vehicles (EVs),” he says, adding that lubricant requirements are, therefore, also in a state of flux. “A lot of changes are happening in the lubricant market.”
These are underpinned by steady growth in the sector. According to Grand View Research, the Indian market alone generated US$6.7 billion in revenue in 2023 and is projected to reach US$9.5 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1 percent from 2024 to 2030.
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Similarly, Mordor Intelligence estimates the market will grow from 3.01 billion liters in 2025 to 3.79 billion liters by 2030, at a CAGR of 4.8 percent during the forecast period.
“However, in the case of Indian Oil Corporation, we are expecting much more,” Patra reveals. “If you see our CAGR for the past four years, it’s around 15 percent. So we would like to have a similar CAGR in the next five years and accordingly, our refinery expansion and blending plant expansion are in progress.”
Indian Oil Corporation anticipates that traditional fuel demand may become “slightly sluggish”, according to Patra.
“As a result, we’re shifting focus toward other forms of hydrocarbons; specifically, chemicals and value-added products,” he explains.
“At Indian Oil Corporation, we’re working to convert the middle distillate stream into two key products: polyethylene terephthalate and biofuel.
“The market demand for these products exists, and that’s why our growth plan is very robust. We’re nearly ready and from the financial year 2026–27 onward, we expect to see significant growth.”
A new world order
The rise in EV adoption worldwide creates an interesting dynamic, coinciding with a shift away from ICEs, but Patra is unfazed.
“Annual growth is expected to be more than 25 percent; by 2030, it’s projected that up to 80 percent of two-wheelers and three-wheelers produced could be electric,” he notes.
“However, despite this rapid growth in new EV production, the overall vehicle population will still consist mostly of ICE vehicles, likely around 80–90 percent. Therefore, we do not foresee any major decline in automotive lubricant sales in the near to medium-term.”
Rather than diminishing Indian Oil Corporation’s share of the pie, EV adoption instead promises to grow that share further. After all, they still require fluids like transmission oil, coolants and greases, which make up roughly 15 percent of the lubricant volume used in traditional ICE vehicles, Patra explains.
“So while there may be a drop in certain lubricant segments, EVs will still contribute significant volume,” he adds.
“We not only expect to maintain volume but also capture additional market share from competitors.”
In line with these predictions, Indian Oil Corporation launched its range of EV-specific fluids earlier this year.
“Developed at our R&D center, these include transmission oils, greases and coolants for both two-wheelers and four-wheelers,” he says.
“This marks a new area of growth for us, where we not only expect to maintain volume but also capture additional market share from competitors.”
It’s an optimistic outlook made likely by a period of upheaval in the lubricant industry, amid talk of mergers, partnerships and exits among some of its biggest players.
“Amid all this churn, we see a great opportunity to strengthen our position in the market,” Patra says, adding that the company works closely with other respected lubricant suppliers such as PETRONAS to advance the industry as a whole.
“Additionally, with India on the path to becoming a developed nation by 2050, we expect industrial activity to rise sharply, especially in manufacturing. This will drive demand for industrial lubricants.”
